This market is building a base of support, back to the Windsor market of years past.
For the week ended there were 212 homes listed in the area. That is down 12.8% from last week and down a robust 20.3% from a month ago. The back to school, “settling in”, process took hold.
Sales data turned positive for the week ended with 125 sales for the week which while down 8.6% from a week prior and off a strong 28.6% from a month ago looks dire in the view of the 930 plus realtors walking around the county with nothing to do. In fact, sales per realtor has dropped through the floor statistically dropping from .188 average sales per realtor per month a month ago to just .134 average sales per week in the week ended Sept 22.
Realtors are starving. With a large cost per month to operate, the pressure to make some career changes will mount as savings and prior sales get paid through. The gauntlet of quarterly income taxation and HST filing will catch up with even the most skilled realtor who has just 1 product on the shelf of their firm. In fact, top realty teams have been reporting statistically significant drops in their number of sales as this market slows.
Where the sales data was positive was in multiple bids or bidding wars. 1 month ago bidding wars were just 28% of sales. A week ago it was 29.1% and this week is was 34.3%. It may seem that realtors make more gross income in a bidding war, but the real reason for a bidding war is a home is priced too low in the market from the start. In reality, if you took a home priced low to trigger a bidding war and you had it appraised for its fair market value and listed it at that valuation, the home sells within a few percentage points of that professional market analysis.
Sales data was also positive as the number of homes selling at or under list price has dropped from 72% of sales a month ago to 71.5% of sales a week ago to 64% of sales this week. Statistically, a seller with a nice home in a decent area of the metro-plex will see a few hundred to a few thousand more dollars for their home on average.
In review, it is still a buyers market in Windsor / Essex. The mean or second derivative in the data sets for the week did show both a slow down in listings and a slowing of sales, but sales slowed less than listings which is fueling the 5% increase week over week of homes selling above ask.